Moving Words – Moving Forward

Timothy Brady

“We keep moving forward, opening new doors, and doing new things, because we’re curious and curiosity keeps leading us down new paths.” – Walt Disney

27.1 million Americans moved from one home to another home in the last year, according to new data from the US Census Bureau. That equates to just 8.4% of the population making a residential move – the lowest percentage of Americans changing homes since 1948.

Now keep in mind over the past five decades the number of people who move has been going down. In the 1950s and 1960s, around 20% of Americans moved in a single year. By 2000 that number had gone down to 14%. In 2010 (post Great Recession and the housing collapse of 2008), that percentage had dwindled to 11.6%.

Americans have become more sedentary as a result of a number of demographic elements. These elements include a population getting older; the consequences of the Great Recession, and the sudden economic downturn caused by the pandemic which has left many people unable to afford a new home. While unemployment data shows us at a historic low number of people seeking jobs, it’s not a true picture of the current job market. Older people who have not reached ‘retirement age’ are already retiring and even younger folks are refusing to take low-wage, at-risk positions. Ironically, the trucking/moving sector was ahead of this unfortunate curve, with early retirement and very little new talent coming into the industry.

According to Zillow, the online real estate firm, home values have gone up a whopping 19% in the last twelve months and are forecast to increase at least another 13% in the next year. That’s 32%. And these home values aren’t going up just in your large metropolitan areas. Data compiled by Realtor.com, an online real estate listing agency, found the hottest markets in the United States are Manchester, N.H., Burlington, N.C. (east of Greensboro), and Eureka, CA.

Increasing housing prices mean those shopping for a home are finding their money doesn’t go as far as it did even a year ago. Too, there’s an ongoing home shortage, with the construction slowdown during the pandemic partly because of supply chain and workforce issues. All of these have put more upward pressure on home prices.

And herein lies a many-sided problem for the moving industry going into 2022 – Census Bureau data shows the total number of housing units grew by just 6.6 percent between 2010 and 2020, while the number of vacant units dropped by 8.6 percent, signaling a market that’s tightening rather than expanding. Finally, in the last 40 years or so, population growth has outpaced the housing supply.

Simply put, those wanting to move are finding it difficult to secure a place to move into.

This Perfect Storm has been developing for the past four decades and isn’t going to be resolved overnight. Keep this in mind as you develop your strategic plan over the next five years. It’s going to take some real innovations and major out-of-the-box thinking to stay ahead in the moving game, but movers have always been resilient and innovative. We’ll be there, literally at the forefront – or front door – of the next major changes in housing. God Speed…

“Don’t dwell on what went wrong. Instead, focus on what to do next. Spend your energies on moving forward toward finding the answer.” – Denis Waitley