Moving Words – 2023 Trends
Timothy Brady
“Figuring out what the next big trend is tells us what we should focus on.” – Mark Zuckerberg
There are dramatic changes concerning where people live in the United States. These changes are influenced by retiring boomers, pandemic concerns, remote work vs. on-site, and the current economic and political uncertainty. All of this is having an unprecedented effect on the moving and storage business.
Mortgage rates have gone from historic lows in 2021 and early 2022 to rates rising to historically high amounts, with the Fed having increased the bench rate by 3/4% basis points several times in the past year. The expectation, based on (Economics and Finance Department, City University of New York) Professor Dennis Shirshikov’s projections, is the 30-year and 15-year benchmark mortgage rates will settle between 8.75% and 8.25% for 2023. Several other finance professors concur. However, there are economists who see interest rates in 2023 differently. Nadia Evangelou, senior economist and director of Real Estate Research for the National Association of Realtors sees three possibilities:
- Inflation continues to remain high, forcing the Fed to raise interest rates repeatedly. That means mortgage rates will keep climbing, possibly near 8.5 percent.
- The consumer price index responds to the Fed’s rate hikes, and there is a gradual deceleration of inflation, causing mortgage rates to stabilize near 7 to 7.5 percent for 2023.
- The Fed raises rates repeatedly to curb inflation and the economy falls into a recession. This could cause rates to likely drop to 5 percent.
From all indications, Americans are choosing to live simpler, more purposeful lives in the coming years. The household moving trends signal people will relocate to communities that aren’t as hectic, selecting homes with less maintenance, more environmentally friendly. This indicates household goods in each move will be reduced in number of items and weight as people pare down what they no longer need.
Should movers anticipate the exodus from California, New York, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, Washington, Colorado, Indiana, Michigan, and Wisconsin as reported in Forbes Home to continue? (We’ll see in January, 2023, if the United Van Lines 46th Annual Movers Study agrees with this assessment.)
Shippers name common motivations for moving: getting married, having kids, going to an area with better schools so their kids get a better education, job relocation, divorce, health reasons, hardship, and being closer to family, along with moving to smaller and more rural locations while working remotely from home. Sometimes more than one motivation is cited.
But are houses available? Housing inventory hit 1.8 million – 2 million active listings nationwide by the end of 2022. Nationwide, house values are 5-25% off the top prices we saw in June 2022. The median home price in the US peaked in June, 2022, at around $414,000. With inflation and the potential of a recession looming, home prices are likely to come down closer to what the average home buyer can afford. (We can hope.)
You can anticipate moving trends in 2023 will be focused upon those goals of simpler, less stressful and more purposeful living. Moving and Storage companies who recognize this and meet these needs of their shippers in coming years should be in an excellent position to grow their relocation business.
As the Bob Dylan song says “The Times They Are A-Changin’”. The impact of the pandemic, inflation, the war in Ukraine, the political environment both here and abroad and advancing technology are all affecting the way we need to do business. The bottom line is keeping an ear to the ground and constantly evaluating the events which can affect your business.
We must all stay ahead of the curve, for 2023 and well beyond.
“There is a lot of noise out there. I don’t want to follow the trend – I want to create the trend.” – Iman
Information Sources:
Andrew Finney
https://www.andrewfinneyteam.com/blog/housing-market-forecast-2023-its-different-than-what-youre-hearing/
Forbes – Home – Deane Biermeier & Samantha Allen
https://www.forbes.com/home-improvement/features/states-move-to-from/
BankRate Erik J. Martin & Tony Segal
Housing market predictions 2023
https://www.bankrate.com/real-estate/housing-market-predictions-2023/
William Chuff & Jim Henderson
Moving Trends in 2023 to Consider
https://williamchuff.com/moving-tips-blog/Moving-Trends-In-2023-to-Consider
United Van Lines Annual 2021 National Movers Study
https://www.unitedvanlines.com/newsroom/movers-study-2021
